VALS™ Lens Applying VALS™ to current events July 2015
In this issue:
- In the Dumps: American Idol
- In Manufacturing: Harley-Davidson
- In Connectivity: Internet and Cable-TV Subscribers
In the Dumps: American Idol
The last season of American Idol will begin in January 2016. The program launched in 2001; by its conclusion, it will have had a 15-year run. The result of competition from similar programs such as The Voice and X Factor and declining record sales is dwindling viewership: The genre is past its prime. According to VALS™/GfK MRI fall studies, viewership among loyal viewers (people who watch Idol three or four times a month) peaked in 2006 and 2007, when 17% of adults counted as "loyal viewers." In fall 2014, only 6% of adults qualify. In 2003, Experiencers and Achievers were more likely than average to view. In 2014, Believers and Achievers are more likely than average to be loyal viewers; Experiencers have been below average since 2009. Given that Experiencers are quickly and easily bored, American Idol had a particularly long run with them. Achievers show a decided preference for both reality-TV shows and shows that involve a competition—"pick me" is very attractive. Believers are attracted to wholesome programs that appear to be fair to contestants.
In Manufacturing: Harley-Davidson
Harley-Davidson motorcycles are no longer the sole domain of hairy, grizzled white guys, according to the Economist (9 May 2015). In response to changing trends, the US manufacturer has introduced easier-to-ride models for women and easier-to-afford models for young buyers; sport and street bikes accounted for one-fifth of 2014 sales volume. The rising dollar, however, is having a greater impact on sales than are changing demographics. The US dollar has soared 18% "since July 2014 against a trade-weighted basket of currencies." As a result, sales in overseas markets have declined. VALS™/GfK MRI fall 2014 data report that more than 7% of households (18 million) own a motorcycle; 4.4 million own more than one bike. Among the total adult population, 2% own a Harley—almost 2% of women and 3% of men do so. Regardless of gender, Makers are the most likely to own a Harley-Davidson. Believers, followed by Achievers men, are also more likely than average to own a Harley. Among women, Achievers are more likely than Makers to boast a Harley, although probably not a "hog." Intuitively, Makers' ownership is not a surprise, but Achievers' ownership may be. Further study is necessary to explain. For example, it's possible that some urban Achiever women are sporting bikes because they are easier to park, easier to negotiate in traffic, and less expensive to buy than a car.
In Connectivity: Internet and Cable-TV Subscribers
The New York Times (5 May 2015) reported, "The Internet is taking over television." For the first time, Comcast's internet customers exceeded their TV subscribers. Measures of both Comcast's internet and TV subscribers are not available in VALS™/GfK MRI for comparative purposes. However, in fall 2014, 86% of all US households have a broadband or high-speed internet connection; only Survivors are below average for doing so. Almost one-fifth of households use Comcast/Xfinity as an internet provider; the four upper-resource VALS groups—Innovators, Thinkers, Achievers, and Experiencers—are above average in use. In comparison, 48% of households subscribe to cable TV; all eight consumer groups are average for subscribing. Changing subscription rates are the result of movie rentals and streaming-video services. For example, in 2006, roughly 2% of adults rented from Netflix; in 2014, 13% rented. Innovators are, and have been, the most likely consumers to be Netflix rental subscribers (25% in 2014). Innovators are also the most likely to download or stream Netflix movies (32% versus 15% of all adults). The data indicate that Innovators are most likely "cord (cable) cutters." Experiencers, few of whom subscribed to cable, are also above average for streaming video. Many Innovators stream or download to a TV, whereas most Experiencers are streaming to a computer or smartphone.