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Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Business Models October 2016

About This Report

Driverless technologies are widely expected to herald massive business-model transformations in the transportation industry and beyond. But no one knows whether such transformations will actually take place, or how extensive they will be. Many factors, including the actions of local and national governments, improvements (or lack thereof) in artificial intelligence, and cultural developments among transportation users will help determine which new business models become successful—and which become possible. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis fully explores the different ways in which new business models may or may not emerge in the future as a consequence of driverless technologies, and discusses how development of such business models may impact the development of driverless technologies.

This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 2.

Table of Contents

Business Models Overview 2
Key Uncertainties 3
The Automation Transformation 4
Transformation is Difficult 5
Well Beyond Vehicles 6
Socially Useful Applications 7
Impacts and Feedback Cycles 8
Government Influence 9
Scenario Dependencies 10
Potential Business Model Development Pathways 11
Scenario A: Status Quo Ante 12
Key Concepts from Scenario A 13
Signposts from Scenario A 14
Scenario B: Big Urban Transit 15
Key Concepts from Scenario B 16
Signposts from Scenario B 17
Scenario C: Open Innovation 18
Key Concepts from Scenario C 19
Signposts from Scenario C 20
Key Takeaways 21
About SBI 22