Constrained Collaboration Scenarios for the Future of Electric Vehicles September 2018
Want more free featured content?
Subscribe to Insights in Brief
Established automakers collaborate with proactive national regulators and city governments to transform many of the world's wealthiest urban centers—especially those in China—into smart-city hubs brimming with interconnected, centrally managed EV "robotaxis" that transport people and packages. The rest of the EV market develops gradually in accordance with regulation-driven industry timelines.
In This Scenario:
- Regulatory incentives and mandates both stimulate and constrain EV adoption in complex ways. Adoption growth is tied strongly to some automakers' equally complex efforts to transform themselves into transportation-services companies.
- Vast fleets of autonomous city EVs end up becoming the fastest-growing but least-profitable market segment.
- Operating autonomous EV fleets in cities offers many opportunities to profit indirectly through in-vehicle services offerings and logistics services and from leveraging the vast data pools that vehicles gather during operation.
- Many of the most desirable locales for fleet operation end up becoming exclusive fiefdoms of single providers, who become very difficult to displace, in part because their fleet-generated data pools are almost impossible for newcomers to replicate.
- An abundance of regulation-driven standards for charging technologies leads to steady development of independent EV "filling stations" that frequently repurpose existing gas-station real estate.
- Abundant charging does not accelerate frustratingly modest EV sales growth to individual consumers.