Decarbonizing Transportation Featured Pattern: P1032 February 2017
Abstracts in this Pattern:
At the November 2016 United Nations (New York, New York) climate meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco, participants agreed upon aggressive decarbonization commitments that aim to prevent the global temperature increase from exceeding 2°C this century. To honor these commitments, countries will have to address the transportation sector.
In part to meet tightening regulations, every major automaker is introducing electric vehicles (EVs) that do not use fossil fuel. EV sales are still low, but government policies could spur faster growth. In October 2016, Germany's Bundesrat (Federal Council) voted to ban new registrations of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars by 2030 as part of a larger goal to achieve zero-emission mobility by 2050. The nonbinding resolution has broad support, and Germany's major carmakers already plan to focus increasingly on EVs. Other vehicle makers and players that do not function solely in the automotive industry are also accelerating EV production. Borgward (Bremen, Germany), which is backed by Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co. (BAIC Group; Beijing, China), plans to produce as many as 10,000 EVs in Germany. And technology and entertainment company LeEco (Beijing, China) is going to produce smart bicycles, EVs, and autonomous cars.
Airlines and jet manufacturers are also supporting biofuel development in efforts to meet aviation-industry emissions-reduction goals. Demand for aviation biofuel is currently outstripping supply. In September 2016, JetBlue Airways Corporation (New York, New York) placed an order for 330 million gallons of aviation biofuel, but producers currently make only about 100 million gallons each year. The maritime industry is also facing new carbon-emissions legislation. Royal Caribbean Cruises (Miami, Florida) recently signed an agreement with shipbuilder Meyer Turku (Turku, Finland) for the development of a new class of cruise ship that relies on liquefied natural gas and low-emission fuel-cell technology for power.
New transportation infrastructures could deliver decarbonization side benefits. For example, start-up Zipline (Half Moon Bay, California) has begun operating an electric-drone-based delivery service in Rwanda. Such drone deliveries are faster than ground-based courier deliveries and do not rely on carbon-emitting motorbikes or trucks.
The Development of this Pattern
Data Points
- SC-2017-01-04-056
In October 2016, Germany's Bundesrat (Federal Council) voted to ban new registrations of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars by 2030. - SC-2017-01-04-072
Airlines and jet manufacturers are also supporting biofuel development in efforts to meet aviation-industry emissions-reduction goals. - SC-2017-01-04-088
Royal Caribbean Cruises recently signed an agreement with shipbuilder Meyer Turku for the development of a new class of cruise ship that relies on liquefied natural gas and low-emission fuel-cell technology for power.
Implications
Decarbonizing Transportation
Moving the global transportation sector away from fossil-fuel use requires new legislation, technologies, and business models.
Previous Alerts
- P0183 — Batteries Are Moving the EV Market (April 2011)
Although environmental considerations are driving the electric-vehicle market, battery considerations are shaping electric-vehicle-market success. - SoC519 — Automotive Transportation Revolution (July 2011)
Signs suggest that automotive transportation is entering a metaphorical tunnel, and it could emerge a very different beast. Welcome to the new world of transportation. - P0345 — Next-Generation Cars: Electricity versus Natural Gas? (May 2012)
Although electric cars currently appear to be on the product-development road map for most car manufacturers, natural gas—especially shale gas—has moved to the center of attention, potentially affecting next-generation vehicle technology. - SoC673 — Hybrids of Public and Private Mobility (August 2013)
Emerging transportation and mobility concepts call a strict division of public and individual transportation into question. - P0669 — The Carbon Sell-Off: A Warning Sign (August 2014)
Some influential organizations may divest their holdings in the fossil-fuel industry, and some have done so already. - SoC848 — Fossil-Fuel Headwinds (January 2016)
Many governments in developed countries are setting a course toward the use of renewable energy at the expense of fossil fuels. - P0983 — Tackling Fossil Energy's Environmental Impact (October 2016)
Various efforts to address the negative effects of energy from fossil fuel are under way.