Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Ownership and Access September 2015
About This Report
SBI's Driverless Futures presents the second in a series of Scenario Discontinuity Analysis reports. These research-based reports analyze elements that are likely to have exceptionally high influence over the future of automated-vehicle commercialization. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis report focuses on how automation technologies may impact vehicle ownership and access. The report discusses potential technology, business-environment, and demand developments, and the implications of those developments.
This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 1.
Table of Contents
Overview | 2 |
Discontinuities | 3 |
Potential Development Pathways | 4 |
Transportation Budgets Today | 5 |
Ownership and its Alternatives | 6 |
A Universe of Smartphone-Summoned Transportation | 7 |
Major Trends Impacting Car Ownership | 8 |
Impacts of Autonomy on Today's Vehicle Business Models | 9 |
Some Demands Persist Regardless of Automation | 10 |
Impacts of Ownership Models on Stakeholders | 11 |
Scenario A: Autonomy that Favors Traditional Ownership | 12 |
Scenario B: Autonomy that Favors Transit | 13 |
Scenario C: Vehicle Sharing with Limited Autonomy | 14 |
Using Scenarios to Test Strategies and Identify Signposts | 15 |
Signposts: Early Detection of Ownership Trends | 16 |
Signposts for Scenario A—Can't Keep Up | 17 |
Signposts for Scenario B—Hand in Hand | 18 |
Signposts for Scenario C—On Your Own | 19 |
Concluding Perspectives | 20 |
A Note on Levels | 24 |
About SBI | 25 |