Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Sensing and Guidance July 2015
About This Report
SBI's Driverless Futures presents the first in a series of Scenario Discontinuity Analysis reports. These research-based reports analyze elements that are likely to have exceptionally high influence over the future of automated-vehicle commercialization. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis report focuses on sensing and guidance technologies for automated vehicles, discussing technology alternatives, their potential future developments, and the implications of those developments.
This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 1.
Table of Contents
Overview | 2 |
Many Possible Outcomes | 3 |
Discontinuities | 4 |
Potential Development Pathways | 5 |
The Current State of the Art | 6 |
Localization Limitations | 7 |
Prevailing Approach to Localization | 8 |
Mapping and Obstacle Detection | 9 |
Efforts to Achieve Low-Cost Lidar | 10 |
Signs of a Visual Disruption | 11 |
The Limits of "Very Accurate Maps" | 12 |
What about V2X Communications? | 13 |
Sensor Fusion: Benefits and Limits | 14 |
Wild Cards: The Edge of Plausibility | 15 |
Causal Factors: The Macro Picture | 16 |
Causal Factors: Technology's Role | 17 |
Causal Factors: Path-Dependence | 18 |
Technology Signposts | 19 |
Technology Watchlists | 20 |
Concluding Perspectives | 21 |
A Note on Levels | 24 |
About SBI | 25 |